As Evgeny Redzyuk, an expert of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, writes in his text for ZN.UA, in comparison with the economic forecast for summer 2020, the expectations for recovery of […] Here too one can recognize the significant discrepancies from the actual figures seen in the crisis years. Source: European Central Bank; Consensus Forecasts; Ifo Institute; INSEE; Istat; Ifo Institute calculations. Wollmershäuser, Timo, "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen – ein Vergleich mit den Prognosen von Consensus Economics", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (22), 2015, 26–28 | PDF, Nierhaus, Wolfgang, "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (02), 2015, 43–49 | PDF, Henzel, Steffen, Wolfgang Nierhaus and Timo Wollmershäuser, "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (17), 2014, 43–45 | PDF. Real GDP is projected to fall by 8.0% in 2020 and to rebound by 5.0% in 2021 and by 3.2% in 2022. Read more. The Eurozone economy contracted sharply in the first quarter of this year, after marginally expanding in Q4 2019. Citation. In the framework of the EZEO, the Ifo Institute, INSEE and Istat draft forecasts for the previous, ongoing and forthcoming quarters, with each in relation to the corresponding quarter of the previous year. You are now leaving the ifo website. The estimates and forecasts are based on a large set of leading indicators and projection methods. Eurozone's GDP forecast for … Mariano, "Comparing Predictive Accuracy", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13, 1995, 253–263. The forecasts by Consensus Economics are used as a comparison benchmark of EZEO’s forecasting accuracy in relative terms. In each case the relation between the roots from the average squared forecasting errors (relative mean absolute error) and the average absolute forecasting error (relative MAE) is monitored. and R.S. Euro zone economic forecasts slashed on fresh lockdowns Risk of further future lockdowns could also make consumers more cautious about spending Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 07:46 World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery June 24, 2020 Description: Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The economy logged the strongest quarterly GDP expansion on record in Q3, as the easing of containment measures allowed households and businesses to resume activity. As Bates and Granger (1969) show, the average value of the expectations of a large number of experts has a very high expected forecasting performance, provided that the individual forecasting errors are independent of each other. ISTANBUL. It produces a joint forecast for real gross domestic product, consumption of private households, gross fixed capital formation (investment), industrial production and the inflation rate in the euro zone for the current and the two following quarters. Forecasting errors show that there is no statistically significant difference between the forecasts by EZEO and those made by Consensus Economics. The figure "Forecasts and realisations" shows deviations by EZEO forecasts from the official statistics for the forthcoming quarter. Furthermore, the Eurozone’s own GDP figure was released at 10:00 GMT which saw the YoY figure for Q4 2019 drop from 1.2% to 0.9%. Updated at 1.24pm EDT. Read more. The European economy is now in its seventh consecutive year of growth and is forecast to continue expanding in 2020 and 2021. These were by far the sharpest increases observed since time series started in 1995, and a rebound compared to the second quarter of 2020, when GDP had … We now expect world economic activity to decline by 1.9% in 2020 with US, eurozone and UK GDP down by 3.3%, 4.2% and 3.9%, respectively. Eurozone economy grew by 12.7% in July-September; Germany and Italy beat growth forecasts; Spanish economy grew by 16.7%.. ... 2020. Like all forecasts, the Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO) differs to a certain extent from the official statistics published at a later date. He forecast eurozone GDP growth of only 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of next year. Italy’s economy was on course to slump by 9.1 per cent in 2020, followed by an expansion of just below 5 per cent the following year. Since the forecast results depend on the information available at the time of their drafting (cf. Another disappointing blow for the Euro which sees other currencies like the GBP edge over it. endstream endobj 1893 0 obj <>stream Eurozone Economic Outlook: Eurozone GDP starts to recover (September 2020) In the second quarter, global economic activity declined sharply due to COVID-19 pandemic containment measures. The Eurozone economy contracted sharply in the first quarter of this year, after marginally expanding in Q4 2019. On the other hand, The forecasts for inflation are significantly better statistically. Trend gross domestic product (GDP), including long-term baseline projections (up to 2060), in real terms. Prior to and just after the start of the crisis, forecasts of real gross domestic product are relatively good. h�250V0P���w�/�+Q05���L)�6434�)����!������vv uu[ Granger, "The Combination of Forecasts", Operations Research Quarterly 20, 1969, 451–468. Against a backdrop of surging coronavirus cases, the Eurozone is reporting a rebounding economy, with a 12.7 percent hike in third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), according to a … In line with these evaluations, this article assesses the quality of the Eurozone Economic Outlook (EZEO)’s forecasts of real gross domestic inflation in the euro area. The eurozone economy will sink deeper into recession than previously thought due to the effects of the pandemic, the European Commission (EC) has said. Experts no longer expect that in 2022 the economy will grow to a pre-pandemic level. In the second scenario the Consensus forecasts enjoyed an information advantage of three to four weeks, meaning that additional indicators would have been available when the Consensus forecasts were drafted (publication at point in time t + 1). International merchandise trade decreased in volume by historic 12.5%, despite a rebound in June (+7.6%). The comparison with naive models shows that the latter produce far greater errors. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically affected global economic activity since taking hold in early 2020 and the euro area economy is no exception. Measures to contain and slow the spread of the respiratory disease COVID-19 have a drastic impact on the global economy. This difference is more pronounced as far as the inflation forecasts are concerned. If deviations from GDP forecasts are compared with those from inflation forecasts, it becomes clear that the former were far more pronounced in the crisis years. Breitrainer, Korbinian and Atanas Hristov, "Evaluation des Eurozone Economic Outlook", ifo Schnelldienst 68 (24), 2015, 67–73 | PDF. Eurozone countries felt a more devastating slump, led by Italy where economic sentiment shrunk 17.6 points to 83.7. Experts no longer expect that in 2022 the economy will grow to a pre-pandemic level. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. To guarantee transparency, this article documents and evaluates the EZEO’s forecasts of real gross domestic product and inflation in the euro since 2004. The European Commission lowered its forecast on Wednesday for eurozone growth. Eurozone: Coronavirus crisis strikes unprecedented blow to Eurozone economy in Q1. The European Commission (EC) left its growth forecast for the eurozone for 2020 and 2021 unchanged at 1.2%, the EC's Winter 2020 Economic Forecast report showed on Thursday. Eurozone Outlook 2020 Replay In the eurozone, Goldman Sachs Research expects a gradual pickup in growth from its current pace of 0.2% to 1.1% for 2020, driven by a friendlier global economic environment, resilient domestic demand, and progress on Brexit. Pw | European Economic Outlook 2020 6 Manufacturing has contracted, i.e. International merchandise trade decreased in volume by historic 12.5%, despite a rebound in … Euro area's gross domestic product (GDP) expectation for 2020 dropped from 1.5% to 1.4%, the European Commission said on Wednesday. These forecasts are the results of repeated surveys of the expectations of a large number of market participants. A total of 45 forecasts published between the second quarter of 2014 and the second quarter of 2015 are evaluated. Read more. It illustrates the distribution of errors. The quality of the forecast is assessed using the forecasting error figure, which corresponds to the difference between the figure first released for the variable in question and the forecast figure. h�Ԗmo�8���?�:q~�i�D�ݢ-mo�;�僗xit�p����c'�R����� '��g�L,9CI��a�R �D��g���0�0'y��b0�Hk����v` ���� �Z���`#�� �R�ӈI���pxf�#I#��k�����,��&����f��D%�涓��N�� �zmq21�ߠZZ|�YY|��}N�q�L��V�]��p�ݓ7�����M�ۺ(�'�ܖ�p�S��΋�՛�A^}��8Y�V�1"mD��?Ĕ��x�X�$#>xhV����;��#�*����ba� R��JwvV�H{*�e�xE��,/̲XlN·(�gmj�S6趮N[q��PFÊ~��,-�2������ak�m��7vfQ̂Z�j�f����i� ���r���;K�]��4ks��v�b����RD:d�C�U�Dᳵi���^@C�ƣ���x41+��M%���po���9�z �H�4�)�$�"�"�x�J*2�`Й�R�d�E�ϴNי"���2�g��4U0�����:�_�׶�����r^E�y9�r n����n7~�U��(Y(26���w��X}o����.�Ӣ�M�{�(�� �M�8;@L����T(���|\$�_$X-w��}��|�%���p�0�B9�/��wIx�f���uxI�~��c� The IMF said certain eurozone countries were better equipped to face the challenge of the crisis than others. The tests results firstly show that EZEO’s forecasts are significantly better statistically than those of the naive models considered (see Fig. The months after the release of the June 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update have offered a glimpse of how difficult rekindling economic activity will be while the pandemic surges. Spain's economy is forecast to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, but the recovery will be uneven across sectors. April 30, 2020. The recovery in 2021 is expected to be subdued. The Eurozone Economic Outlook is published at the end of each quarter, about two weeks after the first release of GDP and its main aggregates by Eurostat. Forecast is based on an assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy, using a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement. This analysis has been limited to quarterly forecasts of year-on-year rates to date. In addition, an average rate of change of the preceding year is estimated in the first quarter of a year; the three institutes forecast also the average rate of change of the current year in the third and fourth quarter of a year. For example, Germany’s car exports to the United Kingdom have fallen by 23 percent since the referendum in 2016, mainly caused by Brexit-related uncertainties and the appreciation of the euro versus the pound.1 The sectoral trend of value-added growth highlights the rela… GDP forecasts for the EU, eurozone and selected countries France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy, is expected to contract by 10.6 percent this year and grow by 7.6 percent in 2021. Forecasting errors increase with longer forecasting windows in this case too. The greatest negative contribution came from private consumption. Bates, J.M. Eurozone: Coronavirus crisis strikes unprecedented blow to Eurozone economy in Q1. ET By. Eurozone: Coronavirus crisis strikes unprecedented blow to Eurozone economy in Q1. ����R�>����Ğ����8���Ģ��vO��K���":@�A!E���ȳ�X��/I��d*\"�H���� (�� t�oc�FϢ��a��K��/�)��3bA�Z0����z����>�7_�WW�=E�5. This was as an implicit reference to the current row brewing in Europe. h�\�_O�0ſ�}c��uD !!l�F���ҭwڰ�.���ooH��۽紿s:#0����}y�Ԣ4�����j2��d��%H�`��4��5̫Jj�p�u{X���z�Z��6���e�a�ݥ"b"�D\���B�! This implies that by the end of the projection horizon, the level of real GDP would be around 4% below its level expected in the March 2020 staff projections. Fresh lockdowns announced across Europe in recent days to contain the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic have triggered a flurry of downgrades to economic growth forecasts as restrictions on activity threaten the continent’s recovery. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. The largest divergences take place around the beginning of the world financial crisis in 2008 and 2009. Author: Jonathan Lopez. With the same information status, EZEO forecasts show in relative terms smaller deviations from the actual realisations. To this end, EZEO’s estimates from the first quarter of the previous year in question, as well as both forecasts for the ongoing year are compared with the respective forecasts by Consensus. '��+*�ߔ�՟�f�H&� >�Q���0�p�#V6���� �s5�6��ɶX:��Ek�y<2FPc)���>[GP˂:�F��L��>�z�9�qi��C6�бT���}�]&�ц7&��'R��3�o�Y�L�+�7�:[£.X���P��v5������kd��ݬz.��ݼ�l[T�R�g� #��� Wollmershäuser 2015), the article ends with a comparison of forecast average annual rates of change by EZEO and Consensus Economics, and the latter is granted an information advantage. The EU economy is forecast to contract by 7½% in 2020 and grow by around 6% in 2021. The Ifo Institute evaluates its economic forecasts for Germany on an ongoing basis (cf. Please note that you are leaving the ifo website and will be redirected to our partner CESifo GmbH. Calendar Forecast Indicators News. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In the Euro Area was worth 13335.84 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. The economies of the eurozone bounced back in the third quarter of the year, according to new official figures. The accuracy of the forecasts diminishes as the forecast horizon lengthens and error variance rises. A comparison of independent forecasts for the UK economy in August 2020. The economy logged the strongest quarterly GDP expansion on record in Q3. Eurozone: ECB cuts rates on long-term liquidity operations and introduces new anti-pandemic auctions. GDP Growth Rate in the Euro Area averaged 0.34 percent from 1995 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in the third quarter of 2020 and a record low of -11.80 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Divisions. Economic activity is not always easy to forecast accurately. The GDP value of Euro Area represents 11.06 percent of the world economy. endstream endobj 1892 0 obj <>stream International merchandise trade decreased in volume by historic 12.5%, despite a rebound in June (+7.6%). The indicator is measured in USD at 2010 Purchasing Power Parities. April 30, 2020 Eurozone: ECB cuts rates on long-term liquidity operations and introduces new anti-pandemic auctions. The indicator is measured in USD at 2010 Purchasing Power Parities. This was much faster than the 6.4% anticipated in the September GEO and took the level of GDP in 3Q20 to 4.3% below its pre-pandemic 4Q19 level. This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy. Trend gross domestic product (GDP), including long-term baseline projections (up to 2060), in real terms. As initially explained, Consensus forecasts are used, which are published at the same time as the respective EZEO forecasts (publication at point in time t). The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast. The eurozone economy is now expected to shrink by 2.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, cutting output The UK GDP is projected to fall steeply by 10.3 percent in 2020, driven by a large drop in domestic demand. The eurozone's second-largest economy is expected to contract 11% this year, the economy … The Eurozone economy contracted sharply in the first quarter of this year, after marginally expanding in Q4 2019. Sie verlassen nun die ifo Website und werden auf unsere externe Recruiting Plattform weitergeleitet. The impact of political factors has become very palpable. EZEO’s forecasting accuracy for GDP only falls for the longest forecasting horizon (according to MAE) compared to Consensus Economics. The IMF forecast a 2020 global contraction of 4.4% in its latest World Economic Outlook, an improvement over a 5.2% contraction predicted in … Eurozone Economic Outlook October 27, 2020 The economy should have rebounded in Q3, following the unprecedented blow dealt by coronavirus-related lockdowns in Q2, although the pace of recovery likely slowed towards the end of the quarter. For evaluation purposes, EZEO’s forecasts are compared with those of Consensus Economics and two naive statistical models. Eurozone Economic Outlook22.12.2020 10:00. Please note that we have no influence on the content of the following site. This lies on the side of the three institutes involved in the EZEO. We return to the topic of the information advantage arising as a result later in the paper. 2020/10/30 Forecast is based on an assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy, using a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement. 1891 0 obj <>stream Henzel et al. %PDF-1.6 %���� The table lists realisations of relative RMSE and MAE. The figure shows forecasting errors over various forecasting horizons. and C.W.J. Euro Area - Economic Forecasts - 2020-2022 Outlook. Since forecasts by EZEO and Consensus are not released at exactly the same time, a one-sided information advantage must be assumed. Eurozone: ECB cuts rates on long-term liquidity operations and introduces new anti-pandemic auctions. Mainly due to the strict lockdown measures implemented in most euro area countries around mid-March, euro area real GDP registered a record decline of 3.8% in the first quarter of 2020. In 2021 global growth is projected at 5.4 percent. In cooperation with INSEE (Paris) and Istat (Rome), the Ifo Institute has published the Eurozone Economic Outlook since 2004. experienced negative growth rates in Germany, the Netherlands, and Turkey during 2019. ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich. Owing to headwinds from international trade and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the manufacturing sector in the Eurozone has been in recession the whole year. The EU forecast the French economy to shrink 9.4 percent in 2020 and to expand 5.8 percent next year and 3.1 percent in the following year. Constant price estimates of GDP are obtained by expressing values of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in terms of a base period. November 25, 2020. Eurozone Q3 GDP up nearly 13%, still far from pre-pandemic levels. Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area. Forecast is based on an assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy, using a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement. The sudden halt to economic activity through quarantines, event cancellations, and social distancing will result in a shock to demand. The economy logged the strongest quarterly GDP expansion on record in Q3, as the easing of containment measures allowed households and businesses to resume activity. The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI increased to 54.4 in October of 2020 from 53.7 in September, beating market forecasts of 53.1. April 30, 2020 For the Netherlands and Italy’s economy was on course to slump by 9.1 per cent in 2020, followed by an expansion of just below 5 per cent the following year. June 24, 2020 Description: Global growth is projected at –4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast. The IMF said certain eurozone countries were better equipped to face the challenge of the crisis than others. Observation points above the diagonal belong to the overly pessimistic forecasts, while points below it show an overestimation. Eurozone Economic Outlook: Eurozone GDP starts to recover (September 2020), Eurozone Economic Outlook: Historic collapse of Eurozone economy (July 2020), Eurozone Economic Outlook: Eurozone slides into Recession (April 2020), ifo Center for Macroeconomics and Surveys, Globalization and “Inter-System Competition”, ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy, ifo Center for Labor and Demographic Economics, ifo Center for the Economics of Education, ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies, ifo Center for Energy, Climate, and Resources, ifo Center for International Institutional Comparisons and Migration Research, Research Group Taxation and Fiscal Policy, Previous Results of the Eurozone Economic Outlook, "Evaluation des Eurozone Economic Outlook", "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit". Forecast of the gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the euro countries 2021 Monthly number of unemployed persons in the EU and Euro area June 2020 Budgetary balance in … France cuts 2020 GDP forecast to 11% contraction Published: Oct. 30, 2020 at 4:29 a.m. April 30, 2020 Diebold, F.X. The Eurozone Economic Outlook is a joint project between the German ifo Institute, the Italian Istat Institute and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. The European Commission publishes its latest forecasts for the euro area economy - 5 November 2020 - Eurozone 2020 GDP forecast -7.8% (previously -8.7%) - Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast … The speed with which the coronavirus pandemic is evolving has necessitated another round of huge cuts to our GDP forecasts. As a result of the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020, much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis. The Figure shows that EZEO’s forecasts beat those of Consensus: forecasts by the three institutes for GDP and inflation show smaller average deviations. Facts — 03.07.2020 EZEO’s forecasts are consistently better than those of naive models. Although EZEO forecasts of GDP growth are more accurate on average (statistically significant), the difference is small. To adequately assess the forecasting accuracy, EZEO’s prognoses are compared with forecasts of alternative models. Real GDP, % Source: Eurostat, Fitch Solutions. The economy logged the strongest quarterly GDP expansion on record in Q3. The lockdown measures in the euro area from mid-March onwards have forced many companies to slow abruptly down their activity. The European Commission publishes its latest forecasts for the euro area economy - 5 November 2020 - Eurozone 2020 GDP forecast -7.8% (previously -8.7%) - Eurozone 2021 GDP forecast … In all cases, the forecast quarterly year-on-year rates of change are compared with the first results officially released by Eurostat. This caused GDP to fall remarkably in Q1 2020 by 3.6%. April 30, 2020. The quality of EZEO’s forecasts is clearly better than that of naïve statistical models. The coronavirus outbreak has led us to reduce our growth projection for the global economy to 1.6% y/y in 2020 (see: Global Economic Outlook: COVID-19 has taken a hold of the global economy) We now expect the virus outbreak to pull the Eurozone into a recession as well The eurozone economy will suffer a historic crash in 2020, but not as badly as first expected, International Monetary Fund (IMF) data showed … Eurozone GDP expanded by 12.7% qoq after a 11.8% decline in 2Q20. The Eurozone economy shrank by 4.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020, easing from a record slump of 14.8 percent in the previous period and compared with early estimates of a 4.3 percent contraction. The points are evenly distributed above and below the diagonal, which means that there are both positive and negative deviations from the realized value. If the relative RMSE and/or the relative MAE figures are lower than 1, this speaks in favour of the relative forecasting quality of EZEO versus the alternative model. Divisions. The Spring 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by a record 7¾% in 2020 and grow by 6¼% in 2021. Eurozone Economic Outlook: Eurozone GDP starts to recover (September 2020) In the second quarter, global economic activity declined sharply due to COVID-19 pandemic containment measures. 6 minute read 24 October 2020 ... experienced the strongest recession since its foundation—the economy contracted 11.8% in the second quarter of 2020, more than three times the drop the union had experienced in the worst quarter during the global financial crisis. That would be … The reading pointed to the biggest increase in factory activity since August of 2018 as output and new orders growth quickened and backlogs of work were the highest since February of 2018. April 30, 2020. However, to exclude the possibility that any of our results are only driven by this information advantage, we now also analyse the forecasts of annual rates of change in GDP growth and inflation. The IMF warned that the euro zone's economic recovery was under threat from the ongoing second wave of coronavirus infections. Economic Snapshot for the Euro Area. The economic slump was not anticipated and its consequences were underestimated initially, but the forecast figures were subsequently lower than the actual development of gross domestic product in the euro area. In Germany and France, the EU’s … 2014; Nierhaus 2015). This, in turn, means that no systematic overestimates or underestimates exist. However, these tests do not prove any statistically significant difference in the forecasting power of GDP growth between EZEO and Consensus Economics. Economics Eurozone: Fine-tuning GDP forecasts post Q2 data Following the release of Q2 GDP data which were the worst on record, but better than anticipated, Reinhard Cluse has raised 2020 Eurozone GDP growth forecast. Households reduced their activities in response to rising Covid-19 infection numbers and following governments’ orders or advices on staying at home and respecting social distancing rules. 2020 Forecast Changes To Major Eurozone Economies. The number of GDP forecasts is 33, while the number of inflation forecasts is 22. Related Fitch Ratings Content: 20/20 Vision - October 2020 Fitch Ratings-London-30 October 2020: The recovery in US and eurozone GDP in 3Q20 after lockdowns were eased was very strong and much sharper than expected in the September 2020 Global Economic Outlook (GEO) forecasts, particularly for the eurozone, says Fitch Ratings in its latest '20/20 Vision' chart pack. The Diebold-Mariano Test is used (cf. The main focus of collaboration between the institutes is the joint estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP), private consumption, gross fixed capital formation, industrial output and the inflation rate in the euro area for the previous quarter, as well as its forecasts for the ongoing and forthcoming quarters. Eurozone economic outlook A long and winding road. This was as an implicit reference to the current row brewing in Europe. It is worth noting that a period of around three to four weeks lies between the drafting of the EZEO forecast and that of Consensus. EU lowers eurozone 2020 growth forecast. The eurozone economy will sink deeper into recession than previously thought due to the effects of the pandemic, the European Commission (EC) has said. November 25, 2020. A forecast is therefore all the better, the nearer the corresponding point lies to the diagonal. Unless pandemic dynamics change significantly in the coming months, growth in 2021Q1 is set to be weaker than forecast in the October 2020 World Economic Outlook," the … Berlin has slashed its GDP forecast for 2020 to -6.3% from a January estimate of 1.1%, Reuters reported. And slow the spread of the three institutes involved in the EZEO grow by around 6 in! ( cf has been limited to quarterly forecasts of GDP growth are more accurate on (... 2020 economic Snapshot for the forthcoming quarter with which the coronavirus pandemic is inflicting and... 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