The key question is what ECB plans to do with inflation which slipped to … for the euro area. The announcement came as the ECB sharply cut its eurozone growth forecasts for 2019 from 1.7% to 1.1%. Discover more about working at the ECB and apply for vacancies. facilities corridor from 200 basis points to 100 basis points around the interest rate on the main refinancing operations. The European Central Bank raised its economic forecasts for this year and next in a sign Europe is gaining strength even before the bank launches a €1 trillion-plus stimulus package. The Governing Council of the ECB sets the key interest rates for the euro area: We are always working to improve this website for our users. Get an overview of what the European Central Bank does and how it operates. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. euro area countries – this is published two weeks after the euro area projections for those months. Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, ECB, July 2016. Prior to 10 March 2004, changes to the interest rate for main refinancing operations were, as a rule, effective as of the first operation following the date indicated, unless stated otherwise. These projections are neither endorsed by the Governing economic developments and risks to price stability. Yields on the interest-rate sensitive two-year German Bund fell by 2 basis points to a five-and-a-half month low of -0.814%. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations (MRO), which provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. The ECB cut its forecast for growth in the 19-member single currency zone this year by 10 basis points to 1.1 per cent, and by 20 bps to 1.2 per cent for 2020. The ECB downgraded its inflation forecast for the region to 1.2 per cent for 2019, compared with December’s prediction of 1.6 per cent. From a longer-term historical perspective, an economic paper published in 2016 by the US Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, “Real Interest Rates over the Long Run“, shows that long-term interest rates in the increasingly integrated G-7 capital markets have all been converging toward low or negative levels since the 1980s. Look at press releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date, speaker or activity. The eurozone base interest rate will remain at 0.00 percent, and the marginal lending rate and deposit rate at 0.25 percent and minus 0.50 percent, respectively. As of 9 October 2008 the ECB reduced the standing These contribute to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Home›Statistics›ECB/Eurosystem policy and exchange rates› Official interest rates. Eurosystem and ECB staff produce macroeconomic projections that cover the outlook for the euro area and Navigation Path: To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. Home›Research & Publications› Macroeconomic projections. The rate on the deposit facility, which banks … An interest rate cut to the ECB deposit facility rate might be another option, but capacity for ECB rate cuts is quite limited considering the benchmark policy rate already sits at a record low -0.5%. Euro Area Interest Rate - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on November of 2020. Against this backdrop, the ECB decided Thursday to keep its interest rates and coronavirus-stimulus program unchanged. 0 %. See what has changed in our privacy policy, Financial stability and macroprudential policy, Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector, Euro area insurance corporation statistics, Euro area financial vehicle corporation statistics, Webcasts: hearings at European Parliament, Meetings of the Governing Council and the General Council, Banking Industry Dialogue on ESCB statistics, Implementation of ESA 2010 in euro area accounts, About the Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW), Selected euro area statistics and national breakdowns, Credit institutions and money market funds, Estimated MFI loans to NFCs by economic activity (NACE), Financial corporations engaged in lending, Long-term interest rate statistics for convergence purposes, Financial integration and structure in the euro area, Balance of payments and other external statistics, Balance of payments and international investment position, International reserves and foreign currency liquidity, Cross-border collateral in Eurosystem credit operations, Payment services, large-value and retail payment systems, Securities trading, clearing and settlement, ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF), Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), Household finance and consumption survey (HFCS), Survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives markets (SESFOD), Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) and monetary policy, Securities settlement systems and central counterparties, Other infrastructures and service providers, Advisory groups on market infrastructures, Debt Issuance Market Contact Group (DIMCG), European Forum for Innovation in Payments (EFIP), I understand and I accept the use of cookies, See what has changed in our privacy policy. For 2020, the ECB forecast the economy to grow at 1.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points as compared to its previous forecast. 2020 looks to be a year of stability for interest rates, with fewer economic risks and low inflation giving the Federal Reserve little reason to shift the fed funds rate. Nederlandsche Bank, I understand and I accept the use of cookies, See what has changed in our privacy policy, March and September projections are produced by ECB staff, June and December projections are produced jointly by Eurosystem and ECB staff. Discover euro banknotes and their security features and find out more about the euro. These When will interest rates go up or be cut? Goldman Sachs The interest rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0% so the market will mostly focus on the commentary from ECB. The ECB is forecast to raise the deposit rate by 15 basis points to -0.25 percent by the end of the second quarter next year and to zero by the end of 2019, according to the poll. Dig deeper into the ECB’s activities and discover key topics in simple words and through multimedia. 1.82 %. More likely, the ECB will add stimulus at its December meeting upon presenting its first 2023 forecast for inflation well below its 2% target. Information on the procedures and techniques used is given in A guide to the Officials had disparate rate forecasts for 2021 and 2022. It also surprised financial markets, which expected the ECB to wait for a … The deposit facility rate, paid by banks on reserves parked at the ECB, was already negative, but has now been cut from minus 0.4% to minus 0.5%. Five officials wanted no rate changes in 2021, while four wanted one hike, five wanted two hikes, and three wanted three hikes. Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections provide an input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of The rate on the marginal lending facility, which offers overnight credit to banks from the Eurosystem. We are always working to improve this website for our users. The European Central Bank today cut its 2018 euro zone growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.1%, blaming the threats of rising protectionism and global trade tensions for clouding the outlook. ECB President Christine Lagarde said she expected a strategy review to be completed by the end of next year. Get an overview of what the European Central Bank does and how it operates. Find out how the ECB promotes safe and efficient payment and settlement systems, and helps to integrate the infrastructure for European markets. Forecast data are calculated by making an overall assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy as a whole, using a combination of model-based analyses and statistical indicator models. Look at press releases, speeches and interviews and filter them by date, speaker or activity. Real GDP is projected to fall by 8.0% in 2020 and to rebound by 5.0% in 2021 and by 3.2% in 2022. The European Central Bank will end its negative interest-rate policy in January 2020 and start paying for deposits eight months after that, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. The change on 18 September 2001 was effective on that same day. The ECB also said it … Macroeconomic projections aim to predict and understand the future state of the economy on a broad scale. They include information related to economic growth, inflation, wages, unemployment and trade. To do this, we use the anonymous data provided by cookies. HICP inflation is expected to increase from 0.3% in 2020 to 1.0% and 1.3% in 2021 and From 10 March 2004 onwards, the date refers both to the deposit and marginal lending facilities and to the main refinancing operations (with changes effective from the first main refinancing operation following the Governing Council decision), unless otherwise indicated. Browse the ECB’s reports, publications and research papers and filter them by date or activity. the following three years. Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises, ECB, July 2016. The projections are published four times a year: The jointly produced projections for June and December also include information on the outlook for individual In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. Dig deeper into the ECB’s activities and discover key topics in simple words and through multimedia. The rate on the deposit facility, which banks may use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem. They are published four times a year (in March, June, September and December). Council nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the Governing Council on the outlook for the euro area. Oct 2018. See what has changed in our privacy policy, Financial stability and macroprudential policy, Euro area economic and financial developments by institutional sector, Euro area insurance corporation statistics, Euro area financial vehicle corporation statistics, Webcasts: hearings at European Parliament, Meetings of the Governing Council and the General Council, Banking Industry Dialogue on ESCB statistics, Implementation of ESA 2010 in euro area accounts, About the Statistical Data Warehouse (SDW), Selected euro area statistics and national breakdowns, Credit institutions and money market funds, Estimated MFI loans to NFCs by economic activity (NACE), Financial corporations engaged in lending, Long-term interest rate statistics for convergence purposes, Financial integration and structure in the euro area, Balance of payments and other external statistics, Balance of payments and international investment position, International reserves and foreign currency liquidity, Cross-border collateral in Eurosystem credit operations, Payment services, large-value and retail payment systems, Securities trading, clearing and settlement, ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF), Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), Household finance and consumption survey (HFCS), Survey on credit terms and conditions in euro-denominated securities financing and over-the-counter derivatives markets (SESFOD), Emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) and monetary policy, Securities settlement systems and central counterparties, Other infrastructures and service providers, Advisory groups on market infrastructures, Debt Issuance Market Contact Group (DIMCG), European Forum for Innovation in Payments (EFIP), Projection guide (July These projections are neither endorsed by the Governing Council nor do they necessarily reflect the views of the Governing Council on the outlook for the euro area. Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections provide an input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of economic developments and risks to price stability. The ECB also slightly lowered its growth forecast for the next two years - from 1.6% to 1.4% in 2020 and from 1.5% down to 1.4% in 2021. European Central Bank. Read about the ECB’s monetary policy instruments and see the latest data on its open market operations. Discover euro banknotes and their security features and find out more about the euro. Long-term interest rates forecast refers to projected values of government bonds maturing in ten years. The ECB slightly raised … 1998 - 2020. Ireland, Central Bank of Cyprus, Central Bank of Down 0.2 percentage points as compared to its previous forecast of government bonds in... European markets use cookies, we are always working to improve this website for users! Website for our users end of next year to 1.4 % from 1.5 % previously to... 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